Botswana’s Power Shift? Early Election Results Threaten BDP’s Iron Grip
Early counting in Botswana’s election shows the long-standing Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) may finally face defeat after 58 uninterrupted years in power.
The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), led by lawyer Duma Boko, has secured 27 out of the 61 parliamentary seats needed, edging close to the 31-seat threshold required to appoint the Attorney-General and, crucially, the president.
Addressing his supporters, Boko, who is running for the third time, called for “vigilance and discipline” at counting centers, urging them to prevent any possible tampering. “Do not leave Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) officials and police alone with ballot boxes,” Boko said, underscoring the tension surrounding this historic vote. “We will celebrate once the job is complete. It’s not over until the final ballot is counted.”
With results coming in, UDC’s wins in key areas, including Mogoditshane, Lobatse, and Francistown, have stunned analysts. In Francistown, UDC candidate Wynter Mmolotsi received 5,108 votes, leaving BDP’s Solly Reikeletseng far behind with 1,138 votes—a margin that Botswana Council of Non-Governmental Organisations’ Thapelo Ndlovu called “unbelievably wide.” According to Ndlovu, “This election is one many didn’t see coming.”
BDP’s losses have also been exacerbated by the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), endorsed by former president Ian Khama, which did not field candidates in every constituency but managed to split votes in critical areas. This splintering effect mirrors South Africa’s recent political shifts, where factions disrupted dominant party control.
The UDC’s success in local authority elections hints at a possible power shift, as local seats often signal parliamentary success in Botswana. Former President Khama’s influence has been noted as a key factor, with BPF “eating into the ruling party’s votes just like Jacob Zuma did in South Africa.”
Botswana, recently ranked 5th in overall governance by the 2024 Mo Ibrahim Index, saw a noticeable decline leading up to this election. As the counting continues, the nation holds its breath to see if this is indeed the dawn of a new political era.
